American Airlines And United Fly More Cargo Flights Than Long-Haul Passenger Services

At 6:45 on Thursday morning, two of the largest aircraft at United Airlines UAL are due to depart Chicago for Tokyo. Neither will carry any passengers.

Four more flights will depart the same day from Los Angeles and San Francisco for Tokyo, also without passengers. Instead, they will all carry vital medical and trade cargo.

Passengers can still fly to Tokyo on United. But whereas there are upwards of six daily cargo-only flights to Tokyo, there is just one flight for passengers.

Weekly intercontinental passenger and cargo-only flights at American Airlines and United Airlines: April 21-27

Across United’s intercontinental network, cargo-only flights outnumber passenger services. Over the next week, United plans 42 international long-haul passenger flights, but 95 cargo-only services, according to its schedules.

Likewise at American Airlines AAL , which is planning for 17 passenger services but 23 cargo-only flights. Delta Air Lines DAL has not made its full schedules available.

It was almost unfathomable pre-COVID-19 for an airline to fly an empty passenger aircraft just for cargo.

But the sharp cut in passenger flights also removed cargo capacity that used to be available underneath the passenger cabin. Around half of the world’s cargo flies in cargo compartments on passenger planes, and the other half on dedicated freight aircraft, which are now typically at peak output.

Besides humanitarian needs, the shortage of capacity has seen cargo rates multiply. The inefficiencies of flying an aircraft without passengers are offset by the fall in oil price. U.S. airlines receive the full benefit of lower fuel prices since they do not have fuel hedging contracts, unlike European and Asian airlines that are commonly locked in to buying fuel at around $60 a barrel.

U.S. airlines last week received guidance from the Federal Aviation Administration on how to carry cargo in the aircraft cabin, either on empty passenger seats or by removing seats. Airlines in Asia and Europe are already carrying cargo on top of empty seats.

Air Canada recently started removing passenger seats on three 777 aircraft to make way for more cargo. Airlines like Lufthansa plan to do so as well while Cathay Pacific and Air New Zealand are studying it.

The U.S. airlines’ cargo-only flights started as a few ad hoc services a week but are now gaining regularity.

Cargo-only flights are increasing not just in frequency but footprint. American Airlines added Asian cities including Hong Kong and Seoul.

United started cargo-only flights to Chengdu and Shanghai, supplementing service to cities like Brussels and Tel Aviv that have large pharmaceutical industries.

But overall, Asia dominates, accounting for 55% of United’s cargo-only flights, and an even larger portion when considering distance and capacity flown. United tends to use its larger 777s and 787s to Asia while European destinations receive smaller variants of its widebody 787.

American is flying the smallest long-haul network of the largest U.S. airlines, operating just a daily flight to London from Dallas and Miami, and three weekly flights to Tokyo from Dallas. While Asia is 18% of American’s passenger international network, it is 61% of its cargo-only flights.

Cargo has always been more dynamic than the relatively consistent passenger side of air transport. Airlines may change aircraft type on a daily basis in response to demand. Flights can be added at short notice.

Demand for cargo-only flights is expected to reduce as the surge in medical needs decreases, and as airlines add more passenger flights. Even with United recently postponing many passenger flights it planned to resume in May, it tentatively expects to have net growth.