Back to Squawk list
  • -11

The Disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370: Separating Fact from Fiction

Submitted
 
Since its disappearance in the early hours of March 8, Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 has been at the center of a major investigation and search effort by multiple countries, as well as intense speculation within the international community about the fate of the missing Boeing 777. The Beijing-bound flight departed Kuala Lumpur at 12:41 a.m. local time on March 8 with 227 passengers and 12 crew members onboard. The plane made its last contact with air-traffic controllers about 40 minutes after… (www.frequentbusinesstraveler.com) More...

Sort type: [Top] [Newest]


grahamamanley
Graham Manley 3
The article mentions that the last radar tracking showed it was heading north west of Kuala Lumpur close to the Andaman Islands, yet it seems to have been assumed that after that it headed south into the Indian Ocean, where the search continues today. There is no explanation as to why it has been assumed to turn south rather than continue north or north west. Elsewhere it has been assumed that it would have been seen on radar if it continued north, however there is a good theory (by Keith Ledgerwood) as to how it might have avoided radar detection by closely following SIA 68 across India. That did at least deserve a mention.
ExCalbr
Victor Engel 2
Maybe because the pings would place it in Kazakhstan if southbound was excluded? Could an international group of spotters fly around Kazakhstan (and neighboring countries) looking for the plane? I note that it was earlier stated, "In a statement released Sunday, the Malaysian government listed countries that it had appealed for assistance in their SAR regarding the missing flight: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, China, Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Australia and France." (that's last Sunday)
http://beforeitsnews.com/events/2014/03/mh370-us-military-cover-up-malaysia-says-maldives-lied-about-planes-sightings-2432822.html
PhotoFinish
PhotoFinish 2
The writer of this piece on the Diego theory seems to have an ax to grind, so it doesn't seem entirely credible.
giger2
HERMAN GIGER 2
well, just keep in mind,the pilot forged his hours in his logbook(like probably most pilots do),got hired FEDEX ,got jump seat privileges ,sat in the cockpit DC-10 ,said to the Dispatcgher/Captain for the purpose of the ride"personal" had in his guitar case , fish piercing ,killer instruments .Captain did not request the man to open and inspect the guitar case. Departed Memphis TN that night in good faith for CA .
Reaching cruise level, the insurance fraudster got up,opened his guitar case , started an attempt to kill all other 3 flight crew members on this Cargo flight. A fight for life and death began 3 unarmed (exept fire ax ,that must be available in Cockpit by regulations)against 1 armed with deadly weapons. The Captain helped tghe fight by doing acrobatic maneuvers , his only weapon he had at his hands,was the airplane(he said afterwards in youtube,flight 705 april 1994 . Fraudster still sitting in federal U.S. prison A horrible aviation event and comes to my mind with MH370.
Ledgerwood is absolutely on the money so far.He just needs to file out certain details, eg TCAS was used to find the other B777 and revealed FL295 steady cruise, and picking up speed, reveals ,he spottet SIA68. Investigators have to arrange experimental B777 formation flights, to find out,
how it played out in SIA68 , they might else be complicit(s).Aerodynamics and barometric altitude controls get messed up, GPS Altitude differs from Barometric Mesured and A/P Controlling Altitude, even if Above and behind,the trailing B777 ,currently i invite aerodynamic studies gigerunderscore2athotmail to fuind out what the separation must be to give the lead B777 a smooth ride without causing discrepancies in these 3 Altitude Sensors 1) Baromatry 2)Doppler grd radar 3) GPS Altitude
Ledgerwood further needs to go in more detail about Transponder squaking again at 02,20 or 02.15 Singapore time. 2 reasons , maybe both are accurate 1) he feared to run into SIA68 , he could not establish visual with him. However US Sources had confirmed on day1 , FL295 was Charlie mode from 9M_MRO , the obducted Boeing 777! 70 minutes after shutting willfully OFF.
Further Ledgerwood needs to see what exactly was the brawl with security guards in the boarding process (Chinese Passport inspection) with those UIGHURS , some artists , some however , ????
Video of security chacks and video of subsequent boarding (could be a lot more people,jumseaters etc on the ram[p with Airport badge)
The last PINGS on the Northern Corridor sure enough lead into their homeland/home region.
Further the fuel question,give me the B777 flight manual,the WX of Departure airport,the Video of departure (rotation point on RWY) and i can tell You to 1000 lbs +- accuraci how much fuel was loaded.
Further 2 days ago , when everybody involved agreed to "all life is lost, South corridor was used" (=Codeword for Insurance Pay-out 0.4 Billion $)they failed to take in the mapping consideration 5 items : 1) 10 degree longitude error
subordinate IOR , IOR is not At 54.5east it is at 64.5 as always. 2) Overlapping Inmarsat has
also pingrings available for the last 2 to 3 hrs of flight which is crucial to know,we can establish absolutely the route that was taken , if we want to ! 3) A search on the gnd and any other MAS Station worldwide going after emergency equipment(7 ELT's,2 strong ELT impact triggering and saltwater triggered on top of that,it could turn up,and prove that it was not bolted on board that flight. 4)Eyewitnes have seen a Jet in Moonlight over maledives , MH#70 or a smuggler Transport between Pyangyong NK and Damascus /Ogaden.Coinsidently a smuggler jet.Low on Altitue to avoid Radar p/u between India and Diego Garcia (range 400 nm was leaked from USAF technicians) 5) change of navigation ,ledgerwood constatated based on pingrings a navigational act was introduced (either live(HDGF bug setting /Waypoint execution) or pre programmed in the FMC . The Searchers 2 days ago forgot(insurance $$ are more important) to take in consideration that both corridors ,after hours-long great-circle track , a deviation towards the pole(s) was experienced.
Hope Keith Ledgerwood and radarshadow370.com will catch up with these 5 items above and we
are in good shape,the truth will come out finally,so many foul players , independently acting from each other, cumulating a riddle more difficult to resolve than the JFK assassination.

giger2
HERMAN GIGER 1
Keith Ledgerwood did not consider the NTSB mistake .IOR is sitting on 64.5 East not on 54.5 east Longitude so everything he calculated was OFF for Cos(lat)*600 nm
jlbrecher
John Brecher 3
Makes me sad to think that the first thing the media pushes is human act of terrorism. They blame anyone with a name they identify with terror. That includes the flight crew. Do you suppose they will say they are sorry when it's discovered that the flight crew was doing everything to save the people. Will they claim the crew was heroic in their efforts. No, they will be off to their next big story.
avihais
Fact. A. Flight MH370 stopped transponder transmissions on civilian radar. That has not changed from day 1. B. Old technology from 1990s satellite has now confirmed the path to the Indian ocean to approximately a 100 mile radius. There is the possibility of further flight due to possibility of remaining fuel.
ExCalbr
Victor Engel 1
Conspicuously absent from that article is the eyewitness report from the woman who spotted a plane in the water from 7 miles up. Whether she saw the plane or not, it would be good for this report to be taken seriously and for a proper explanation to be given for it. I think this is a significant report in part because the woman reported what she'd seen prior to her hearing about the MH370 going missing, and she was convinced enough to file an official report.
yr2012
matt jensen 1
I posted that report from the IBT. It has disappeared along with eyewitness reports from the ground.
giger2
HERMAN GIGER 1
also Eyewitness (about 4 or 5) had observed a nightflight over Maledives Island, this makes sense in case they where unsuccessful on the radar shadow maneuver resp.Visually P/U the Barcelona bound B777 .Doing the math , they missed him by many minutes,estpecially if he got a shortcut to a good greatcircle waypoint. TCAS is built for maybe max 32 NM ball-radius one-from-another Boing . Even following these
waypoints on the IFR high altitude jet route map would not help,if they came too
late to the party.
So plan B to reach Pakistan/Iran/Ogaden would be stay out of primary radar (Some radar go acvtually out 400nm for non stealth targets skin painting as highly reflectable as a B777 . Involving low altidute tree high flying at night in the borderarea Somalia .
PhotoFinish
PhotoFinish 1
Again, the British ping data is not consistent with this theory either. For all the same reasons as above.

You'd have to believe the Brits have falsified their satellite data.
bwolf1
brian wolf 1
just wondering if the comms can be turned off ,and if it flew for an additional few hours ,would it be possible that they also were able to turn the black boxes off too??
avihais
Sadly yes.
mrbuffalosabre
Can someone explain to me why the transponders are able to be shut off? You would think ( The Airlines Or Plane manufacturers ) would have one that stays on regardless in cases such as this to be able to more easily find a missing plane. Thanks
avihais
If there is a fire electronic systems need to be able to be disabled. Short circuits can trip a circuit. On the ground at an airport (Take Heathrow of JFK as an example there would be a jumble of id's over the top of each other. Some aircraft are airborne before control assigns a squawk code for the ID of the flight. Maintenance also has to be able to switch off or disable systems.

Take your pick.
mrbuffalosabre
Thanks Martin for replying to my question.
PhotoFinish
PhotoFinish 1
Squawking a code publicly and ability to constantly send location data to ops center are 2 completely separate functions. Like a car can have both headlights and LoJack recovery installed simultaneously. Bit they don't have to be turned off together.

Need for maintenance to turn off any system is no excuse to allow a commercial passenger plane to turn off its' active radar signature. Airliners don't ever need to go stealth, ever.
avihais
FIRE - oh no I can't turn off the only circuit that's causing it. May be a rare or unprecedented situation but just as the SWIFT software it will never happen on such a localised controlled route. But it did. Just like the electrician needs to turn off or open a circuit breaker so does the AME>
PhotoFinish
PhotoFinish 1
Now that's an argument. But it has little resemblance to the above gibberish that's oft repeated about maintenance and busy airports.
PhotoFinish
PhotoFinish 1
Still think it's more important to have all electronics in areas protected by automatic fire suppression and circuit breakers that will turn off the circuit in case of short or fire, than having a system that allows pilots to go into stealth mode. Passenger jets don't need stealth mode.

Much worse is that there are ETOPS planes flying around with battery operated safety equipment (ELTs) in areas that are not protected by fire suppression equipment. That is much worse and has already resulted in a fire. Luckily it was on the ground in an empty plane. But it could've been much worse had it happened over the Pacific or on a polar route.
avihais
That's one for the eggheads and aircraft designers to solve - way beyond what I could come up with or answer. It's unfortunate my father in law is not around as he was an avionics and airframe engineer as he could answer the technical aspects of your statement.

As to the gibberish comment -all my information comes from study for a Bachelor in aviation , years of study into aircraft accident investigation, and reference to technical books and scientific journals.

Obviously there is common information on the internet. I will sign off for now - have to plan for a funeral and play big time catch up in my study.
giger2
HERMAN GIGER 1
Your father in Law would have ACARS ON for EMERGENCY ,Transponder OFF can be considered an Emergency, also even with or without 7700 or 7600 or 7500 in the box selected fee free service ,LAT LONG ALT immediately , at any irregularity , compare Fedex flight 705 in the 90-ties, The Captain got his scull hammered in with a fire axe,. kept on flyinmg manually,arobatic maneuvers "my only weapon now I have,is my airplane" he sayd after Emergency Landing in Memphis TN.
avihais
You would never come near what my late father in law would or could do and neither could I. He designed a small box that tested the first 737's avionics without running the engines, installed the first navigation systems in 747's and figured out how to save weight on them. He designed the first cockpit layout in the Airbus amongst many more and ironically was seconded to run Malaysian Airlines engineering division for 7 years.

But all these counterplots and conjecture again as per the title just takes us away from the facts.

What if the engineer passenger got into the cockpit as a "friend" killed the pilots, locked the door and disabled everything and flew the aeroplane where no one would ever look.

Except someone that figured it out such as maybe a highly intelligent person like my father in law.

See I can come up with some bulls.........

Back in reality land they are still looking for an aeroplane and/or its wreckage and nobody knows how, who or why.


ekhan5
khan sardar 1
Can please someone tell me that anyone other crew member other than pilot/co pilot can open the cockpit door from outside the cockpit. If not than if something happens to two men in cockpit then ?????????
PhotoFinish
PhotoFinish 1
Then the plane flies for 7 hours and crashes into the rough waters of the south Indian Ocean, runs out if fuel, stalls as the plane pitches up, falls into the ocean breaking up into many pieces upon impact.
smoki
smoki 1
The sequence of events in your scenario is in confusing order and invalid with respect to the behavior at stall. In such a scenario the airplane would run out of fuel first, the engines would slowly wind down, possibly asymmetrically, the A/P if engaged would attempt to hold the altitude and heading until it ran out of pitch trim after which a high sink rate would develop very likely in a near level attitude, with it becoming very quite inside during the descent until impact at a relatively slow speed. There is no aerodynamic basis for "pitch up" at stall and under such a low energy impact not necessarily "many pieces" generated, perhaps none.
PhotoFinish
PhotoFinish 1
The first part summarizes the itemized steps that follow. Didn't make it so clear. Thanks for pointing it out.

The behavior of the plane would depend on the configuration. Are you suggesting that it would be likely for the autopilot to ease the plane down to the surface of the water slowly, without danger of the plane stalling out?
avihais
What if it was a takeover, suicide or hijack and CFIT. What are the properties of a 777 with RR 800 series with its and weight and balance, trim the list goes on

Back to clouding the issue, as per the separating fact from fiction title, with unknown accident scenarios based on unknown what happened, how any why?
giger2
HERMAN GIGER 1
He even turned his transponder back ON over Andaman Islands at 02.20Singapore time. .Here is WHY. TCAS interrogation is only about 33nm and only realizable when both traffic alert participating aircrafts have full mode(s) on .Mode C=Altitude was confirmed FL295 and ID mode S = M9-OMR Mode A is irrelavant,they probably set it 0000 .Further the Waypointed route.Here is why : SIA ATD was also 12.41 in Changgi(Singapore)Fuel load for Barcelona Spain 13.35 hrs +alternate Bajaras 1.12+45 almost 16 hrs endurance. Nobody has looked into Capt Shahs paperwork before the flight and his point of rotation on his Departure Runway.Fuel sheet fraud etc. MH370 could have also have 17 Hrs or so fuel onboard.One engine shut down for the purpose of range stretching would at best give an irregular ACARS ping attempt .In deed we had to partial (=irregular pings one at 01.10 singaporetime when he slushed out his Cabin Differential overpressure valves at 45000 and one again at the very end of range IOR (64.5East,Equator subcoordinate) at 08.19 .We need to compare the pingrings out of the next west overlapping covering Satellite at 15.5West . Some people in Boeing,GE , Inmarsat and SITA know exactly where the last few pings dicribed the route taken by this B777 . Southcorridor makes no sense. And to say
COM was OUT (not available to the cockpit crew) TX and RX ,makes no sense , since intelligent life on board the cockpit deliberately turned on the transpondersystem in full mode(s) selectable "AC".which gives also Mode S .There are more than just 2 fire axe in that cockpit, and more than 2 Oxygen masks/bottles 1 hr each available in this cockpit.Some body from MAS airborne had called 121.500Mhz ,unidentifiable mumbling was the answer. PTT switch are with doned mask available on the set itself.
Indian Air defense are defending and tape monitoring the ADIZ borders, not inside India, So once the made tghe piggy-bag radar entry above and behind this heavt B777 to Barcelona with clearance thru Iran (!) they had their chance to do what ever they wanted to.Break away maneuver can only be reconstructed , if the general public gets the Pingrings taken by the second satellite.Looking at ll this above , the criminality behind this project, the eyewitness fooling attempts , the taped and re-played "All right . - Good night" into 126.9 that night, we have to have Our doubts about ELT's and blackbox were bolted on board at the time of departure.
giger2
HERMAN GIGER 2
6) frequency shift data ,can not differ north corridor from south corridor,it is impossible.We are lucky , the experts are not buying it,careful as they are they say "it is not fully understood'
Freq shift can only indicate convergion and divergion,this means approach station, movingaway from station. That's all, It is safe to say , it is a willfully false expert witness statement, just to get ALLIANz , Herr Diekmann ,Munich to turn lose of his 400 Million$
PhotoFinish
PhotoFinish 2
You make some intereting points. I won't believe anything for sure until they produce some missing airplane parts.

That said, you some incredible challenges to overcome.

1) Inmarsat analyzed their ping data, which was consistent with other 777s moving in a southernly direction. That puts the plane heading to Antarctica, not Kazakstan.

2) They have some insecurity in the exact heading of flight, but have considerably more confidence in the distance from satellite for each ping. These would be either deep south Indian Ocean or northern Central Asia. So not Middle East/Iran.

3) Even if the plane has relatively greater freedom after entering Infia, as they are monitoring their ADIZ. But you would agree that the northern border (Pakistan, China) would be as well monitored as the southern ocean border.

4) MH370 would have to depart from the Barcelona plane's flight path over India, at the very latest to be consistent with the ping distance data. So India would see the plane exiting India. And either Pakistan or China would see a unidentified bogey coming from India into their airspace. I would think the Chinese would have tighter control of their airspace to not notice. And I couldn't imagine the Pakistanis not noticing or not caring that an unidentified plane was coming from India into their airspace.

---
So quite a creative theory, but with too many questions that seem to make it inconsistent with known data.

You would have to believe that the British have falsified their data. Their methods and results have been peer reviewed by another satellite operator.
giger2
HERMAN GIGER 2
Thanks Photofinish - We have competition Sat at 25 east,well overlapping - data refused,i tryed many times.Inmarsat Nexr in the west is 15.5 west , data also refused. All the doppler effecvt can show, is either approaching a or diverging stations.Never South or north, they are willfully making their false expert witnes statement so ALLIANZ has now started pay-outs.The entry is relevant to a souveraign country , not the exit .If they were succesful in radar shadowing the SIA68 ,cleared thru Pakistan and Iran, they had good cards to make their way ,wherever they have landed safely.ACARS regular PINGS reveal a breakaway from SIA68 before entering Pakistan.UIGHURS (muslims)were on board,was leaked on day 1 by some security guards ,the cockpit has many more seats and oxygen and com stations than 2. A n intentional Equatorcrossing does not make sense, HDG or Great circle no place to land there.Plus
the PING regular 08.11 and (irregular=ABnormal Ops!) 08.19 reveal an intentional course change,out of the previous greatcircle and/or HDG ! We have to find out, how this one had progressed after deliberately turn ON full Mode(s) transponder at 02.20 Singapore time.
avihais
Hi Herman - I must admit I am a little confused by the above and it seems you have a knowledge of the systems and applications of the "Doppler effect". I on the other hand am only relying on the information provided by the British. There was a delay before providing their data as it needed to be checked and peer reviewed before providing it.

I would be confident in their findings and many nations are providing and investing huge amounts of money searching for it.

The above title separating fact from fiction comes back to the finding a civilian aeroplane was missing after the transponder signal stopped. Communication attempts failed and emergency procedures took place. No solid data has bee identified until the UK invested time putting thought into the 777 avionics systems and any technology that was available to identify it.

That's the fact from the fiction and the rest is either the Malaysian Government being given multiple theories and under pressure they released confusing rubbish and the media jumping on this and compounding the issue.

It is hard for us to fathom this unique scenario as preceding lost aircraft have been decades ago with very limited technology.

Again and again Air France Flight 447 comes up despite being in an Atlantic non radar sector at least was more or less continuing on its intended flight path and ACARS broadcasted to the end. Wreckage was found within days and being an Airbus A330 it had impacted in a way that tore those parts off. Despite the timeframe locating it at least the families had confirmation the passengers had died within days.

The confusing part is the media, quite rightly is fed general information in layman's terms explaining how they did it. Then everyone takes it and applies their aviation knowledge and a bunch of stuff form the internet.

So here they are with the only solid lead which I trust is being data analysed by the UK scientists and avionics experts and reviewed by non UK counterparts.

That's fact from fiction.
giger2
HERMAN GIGER 1
doppler effectcannot reveal "Southern track" Only stations converging or diverging,based on shift frequency,that's all.This flight piggy-backed on SIA68 i am pretty confident.SIA68 had a clearance on an everyday basis, thru Pakistan and Iran.
Break away away from the equator is a fact,supported by shift freqand pingrings,Hdg changes after 08.19 are not known.Could have been a U-Turn ti Iran.Intercept/escort whatever.It was night and even Northbound into china at low level (Himalaya mout everest 28000 feet ) AGL is considered low level.Remember the Uighurs at the beginning of boarding.Also the aircraft could have had doubled the fuel the paperwork shows. ELT and survival equipment removed /hidden somwhere in Malaysia,before the flight.The Cockpit holds at least 5 stations(not only these 2),fire axe certainly more than one ,jumpseats , Oxygen,COM access etc. , If separable ibn pressurization, A quick Cabin dump at 45000 freezed to death instantly all lifes on board.
avihais
Done some research and many explanation some simplistic and some more complex. A basic explanation is at http://blogs.wsj.com/searealtime/2014/03/25/how-investigators-used-the-doppler-effect-to-trace-flight-370/

No further explanation needed as I am still a layman and many of the technical explanations and calculations involved go way over my head faster then 833 KM/H
locomoco
M.F. LaBoo 1
"The plane’s Airplane Health Management system continued to transmit hourly signals to an Inmarsat satellite while the plane was apparently still in the air. However, this does not necessarily mean that the aircraft was still in flight during that time, as planes are capable of transmitting signals after a landing or crash."

Not in an average water depth of 12,000 ft+, they aren't.
PhotoFinish
PhotoFinish 1
Actually they knew the plane was moving because the ping data indicates that the plane kept changing its' distance from the satellite (at a rate that is consistent with a plane moving at the cruising speed of an airliner, and not a rate of a object floating along on ocean currents).
VFF0347
One question that I have for the group… I’m not a pilot. It's been said that a fire may have occurred, the fire may have incapacitated the pilots, and then the fire suppression system may have put out the fire enabling the plane to fly for several more hours. In the event of smoke/fire wouldn't the pilot/co-pilot immediately put on an oxygen mask/hood to avoid incapacitation?
giger2
HERMAN GIGER -1
a Fire that SHot down the transponder ? No way : on day1 it was reported,that transponder in all full mode(s) was up and running again showing him at FL295 (29500 feet) Why is trivial for an experienced Airline Pilot: TCAS had to reveal where(direction and distance) at FL300 the Singapore B777 was to be seen. Mode S revealed registration M9-MRO = flight MH370 - the lost COM /Lost radar Airplabne from before , 70 minutes before. Was he able to radar shadow (=follow close above and behind)the SIA68 , and if yes how far into Pakistan /Iran remains to be seen,however the breakaway was to the Pole ( not towqrds the equator) a right turn
towards a prepared destination according to their plan .

Login

Don't have an account? Register now (free) for customized features, flight alerts, and more!
This website uses cookies. By using and further navigating this website, you accept this.
Dismiss
Did you know that FlightAware flight tracking is supported by advertising?
You can help us keep FlightAware free by allowing ads from FlightAware.com. We work hard to keep our advertising relevant and unobtrusive to create a great experience. It's quick and easy to whitelist ads on FlightAware or please consider our premium accounts.
Dismiss